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(Fortune Magazine) — The global financial tumult is so broad and deep that it’s almost too big to grasp, so here’s a way to think about it. Every financial crisis involves at least one vicious circle, a process in which things getting bad causes things to get worse.

Today’s crisis consists of at least three big vicious circles all of which are meant to be checked by the government’s proposed megafix. As we try to sort out each day’s blizzard of news, it may help to ask which one we’re watching - and whether the latest events suggest that the circle is bottoming out or just spinning faster.

The three downward spirals:

Confidence. All banks and insurance companies rely on the widespread perception that they’re in good shape for the long term. Even the soundest firm couldn’t repay all its obligations on short notice, but as long as everyone believes the firm is solid, it never has to. Yet just a tiny crack in the foundation of confidence can bring a whole institution down; that’s the classic Depression bank run in which a mere rumor can start the vicious circle of withdrawals and falling confidence that results in bank failure.

Federal deposit insurance ended runs on commercial banks but not on other financial institutions, and that’s what was about to doom Bear Stearns and AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) before the feds stepped in; Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500), Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500), and Lehman Brothers were apparently in deeper trouble, though they could have been rescued much less painfully if a confidence-sapping vicious circle hadn’t turned their problems into crises.

Washington’s giant bailout is intended to squelch a crisis of confidence in the whole U.S. financial sector. That’s what’s happening when the stocks of Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) and Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) get pounded, or when the prices of gold and Treasury bonds rocket. The less capital that goes into the sector, the weaker it becomes, driving capital further away, and so on.

Deleveraging. Lots of financial firms are concluding that they have too much debt. They’re right. The paradox is that if they all try to do the right thing and pay down some debt, it makes them all worse off. To get the money to reduce debt, all are trying to sell financial assets. That glut of supply drives prices down, reducing the value of the assets the institutions still hold, so even after they’ve reduced debt, their debt ratios are no better than before, and they have to sell more assets, driving prices down further, and so on.

This vicious circle is different from the crisis of confidence in that it’s based on real dollars, not psychology. Lehman’s assets really did plunge in value, and everybody knew it. (That hard fact, of course, contributed to the confidence crisis.)

Housing. Since the housing market is the root of the whole mess, things won’t get better until that market hits bottom. For now, it’s still sinking, driven by the worst kind of vicious circle - a virtuous circle gone into reverse.

From about 2000 until 2006, U.S. home prices went up because they were going up. Yale professor Robert Shiller, who predicted the current housing collapse, notes that after easy credit launched the housing boom, consumers faced strong incentives to buy the most expensive house possible with the biggest mortgage they could get. That behavior then drove prices higher, strengthening the incentives, and so on.

Now it’s the opposite. With prices falling, buyers figure they should wait to buy, while sellers rush to sell now; both behaviors push prices even lower, giving even greater incentive for the same behaviors.

What breaks vicious circles? In the economic world, massive federal intervention seems to be the only action that has worked. The Depression can be seen as one big vicious circle, with the New Deal (or World War II) as its antidote. On a smaller scale the Resolution Trust Corp. stopped the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s. Now Washington is feverishly debating the biggest intervention ever, reasoning that’s what is needed for the biggest crisis ever.

Let’s be careful. Did you know that you can buy credit default swaps on the United States? You can, and the price - indicating perceived risk - has been rising. A crisis of global confidence in the U.S. government is one vicious circle we really don’t want to start spinning. 

"Telepresence" is helping the tiny startup—and giants like Cisco

by Peter Burrows

LifeSize’s Malloy says “telepresence” isn’t only for rich companies Watt McSpadden

When Colin Buechler left Dell (DELL) last year, he never thought he would end up at a videoconferencing company. Ever since AT&T (T) unveiled a videophone prototype at the 1964 World’s Fair in New York, the technology has promised the moon but delivered mainly jittery pictures and out-of-synch audio. Buechler knew there was a videoconferencing system at Dell, but never bothered to use it. “I couldn’t even tell you where it was,” he says.

Then Buechler met up with Craig B. Malloy, CEO of startup LifeSize Communications, across town from Dell in Austin, Tex. As they talked, Malloy launched high-definition-quality video calls with business partners in Guatemala, Norway, and India, and Buechler was struck by the way these sharp images enhanced the whole interaction. He quickly signed on as LifeSize’s senior marketing vice-president.

Buechler’s timing looks smart. While TV pundits debate the reasons for Wall Street’s sudden collapse, chief executives around the U.S. are steeling for a recession and scrutinizing costs. That includes travel expenses—providing a once-in-an-era opportunity for the $1.6 billion videoconferencing industry. Cisco Systems (CSCO), Polycom (PLCM), and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) are seeing strong interest in their swank “telepresence” systems, which create the illusion of sitting in the same conference room with people in far-off locales. From Cisco, customers get specially furnished conference rooms, each costing as much as $300,000, with high-end equipment fit for a TV-studio. Customers shell out at least $5,000 a month for fast data pipes. Cisco’s sales have doubled to more than 1,000 units since May, and sales could reach $1 billion by 2010. Says Marthin De Beer, head of Cisco’s Emerging Technologies Group: “Telepresence is about putting your best salesman in front of your best customer in a matter of minutes.”

AFFORDABLE ALTERNATIVE

LifeSize says it provides similar benefits at much lower prices. Combining its own HD cameras with some fancy video processing, the startup offers sharp pictures over ordinary Internet hardware for as little as $5,000—or up to $40,000 for full telepresence. Without massive network upgrades of the sort Cisco provides, LifeSize customers may notice some blurring when people move quickly. Even so, 4,000 customers ranging from giant Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) to tiny Web venture FetchDog.com have purchased 15,000 systems. Telepresence, says Malloy, “is not just for the richest companies in the world.”

LifeSize may soon have to share the low end of the market. Polycom has dropped its prices below $10,000 for some systems, and Cisco is also moving down market. Perhaps more important, Cisco has unveiled a sweeping new scheme to use telepresence in many business and consumer settings. A giant LCD screen at your bank, for example, might display mortgage rates and other data one moment, and at the flick of a button, conference you in with a mortgage broker.

LifeSize can’t compete with Cisco in all such applications. But it gets good reviews from its customers. Activision (ATVI), the computer game maker, has placed 24 LifeSize systems in its offices in five countries. Information Technology Director Thomas Fenady says this allowed Activision to cut its travel budget by 20% and trim weeks off the game development cycle. Adena Regional Medical Center in Chillicothe, Ohio, has rigged up LifeSize systems for telemedicine, so its patients can be examined by experts at a larger hospital in Columbus. Business travelers could be the next big user base, says IDC analyst Nora Freedman. Hotel chains are likely to install lower-end systems so that road warriors can have more virtual face time with their families.

MOGADISHU, Somalia Disagreements between Somali pirates holding a ship laden with tanks and heavy weapons escalated into a shootout and three pirates are believed dead, a U.S. defense official said Tuesday. The pirates denied the report.

The U.S. destroyer USS Howard and several other American ships have surrounded the Ukrainian cargo ship Faina, which was hijacked Thursday and is now anchored off the lawless coast of Somalia. The pirates have demanded a ransom of $20 million and the U.S. Navy cordon aims to prevent them from taking any of the weapons ashore.

The official in Washington who reported the shootout spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak on the record. He refused to elaborate and said he had no way of confirming the deaths.

But the pirate spokesman insisted the report was not true, that his colleagues were just celebrating the Muslim feast of Eid al-Fitr despite being surrounded by American warships and helicopters.

“We didn’t dispute over a single thing, let alone have a shootout,” pirate spokesman Sugule Ali told The Associated Press by satellite telephone Tuesday.

“We are happy on the ship and we are celebrating Eid,” Ali said. “Nothing has changed.”

The Islamic feast marks the end of the holy month of Ramadan.

Earlier Tuesday, Andrew Mwangura of the East African Seafarers’ Assistance Program cited an unconfirmed report saying three Somali pirates were killed Monday night in a dispute over whether to surrender. Mwangura said, however, he had not spoken to any witnesses.

Elsewhere in Somalia, pirates freed a Malaysian tanker Tuesday after a ransom was paid, according to a Malaysian shipping company.

The blue-and-white Ukrainian ship Faina has been buzzed by American helicopters since Sunday. Pirates hijacked the Faina and its cargo of 33 Soviet-designed tanks and weapons Thursday while the ship was passing through the Gulf of Aden, one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, en route to the Kenyan port of Mombasa.

Ali said the vessel was surrounded by four warships but he could not identify where the ships were from. The San Diego-based USS guided missile destroyer Howard has been watching the pirate ship for several days and has spoken the pirates and crew by radio.

The U.S. defense official in Washington said the pirates have been moving from ship to shore and back again, bringing provisions including livestock.

One day after their worst sell-off since 1987, U.S. equity index futures traded sharply higher. Credit market troubles continued

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One day after a vicious stock-market sell-off, the likes of which had not been seen since the 1987 market crash, U.S. equity indexes were trading sharply higher Tuesday.

Monday’s plunge came after the House of Representatives defeated the Bush administration’s $700 billion financial rescue. President Bush said Tuesday that a rescue bill must be passed.

Short covering was helping to propel market gains Tuesday. At around 10:35 a.m. ET, the blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average was higher by 261.64 points, or 2.52%, to 10,626.69. The broader S&P 500 index added 37.92 points, or 3.43%, to 1,144.34. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index gained 55.50 points, or 2.8%, to 2,039.23.

On the New York Stock Exchange, 19 stocks rose in price for every 7 that fell. The ratio on the Nasdaq was 12-10 positive. Trading was active.

Battered financials, energy, and consumer staples stocks were higher, reports S&P MarketScope.

On Tuesday, the dollar index soaring as euro slumps. Gold futures were skidding. Oil futures were higher in a rebound from Monday’s downturn.

Meanwhile, equity markets around the world were trying to regain their footing after Monday’s bloodbath. In London, the FTSE 100 index was up 0.97% to 4,827.59. In Paris, the CAC 40 index rose 0.2% to 3,961.45. Germany’s DAX index was down 0.85% to 5,757.57.

Asian markets were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell 4.12% to 11,259.86. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index gained 0.76% to 18,016.21. Shanhai’s markets remained closed for a holiday.

The fervently wished-for bailout was rejected Monday by the House of Representatives in a stunning turn of events, and investors reacted with a vengeance. Major U.S. stock indexes plummeted Monday in one of their worst sessions ever.

On Monday, the Dow suffered its worst one-day point loss ever, falling 777 points. The Dow closed lower by 6.98%. The S&P 500 plunged 8.79%, and the Nasdaq tumbled a jaw-dropping 9.14%. According to Bloomberg News, $1.2 trillion was knocked off the value of American equity securities.

Just how bad was it on Monday? Miller Tabak strategist Phil Roth provides some clues: Some 96% of the operating company stocks on the New York Stock Exchange fell in price, and 97% of the day’s trading volume was in the declining stocks. The S&P 500 fell 2.4% in the final five minutes of trading. The VIX index, widely regarded as the market’s primary “fear gauge”, leaped as high as 48.40 on Monday, the highest level since readings of 48.46 on July 24, 2002 and 49.35 on Sept. 21, 2001.

S&P chief technical strategist Mark Arbeter provides some other telling statistics: The S&P 500’s drop of 8.49% was the largest one-day decline in the large-cap benchmark since the crash on Oct. 19, 1987 when the market fell 20.5%. Funds came rushing out of stocks and corporate bonds and into treasuries on a massive flight to safety. At one point during the Monday’s session, the yield on the three-month Treasury bill fell near 0%.

“Traders can get a rally going, but a new bull market will probably have to await a sizable drop in long term interest rates to attract serious investment buying,” wrote Roth in a note early Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the credit markets endured another nerve-wracking day. Reuters reports the cost of borrowing overnight dollars on global money markets soared despite central banks pumping billions into the banking system to prevent it seizing up further after U.S. lawmakers’ rejection of a $700 billion financial rescue bill panicked markets. The London interbank offered rate (Libor) for overnight dollars jumped by a record 430 basis points to 6.87 percent, the highest in at least 7-1/2 years.

PARIS

The first half of the display showcased the creations of Mark Eley and Wakako Kishimoto, the design duo better known as Eley Kishimoto, who were hired last year to give the brand a face-lift.

Models with their hair fastened into side knots paraded in easy, breezy summer dresses and pajama-style slacks in upbeat shades of mustard, turquoise and purple, some featuring printed or crocheted motifs of migrating birds for a retro tinge.

Then, in a surprise finale, dozens of models emerged in the label’s vintage Liberty floral print cotton shirts and dresses, before taking a bow with 76-year-old founder Jean Bousquet.

“We wanted a show with a newness, a new direction of the next 50 years with us as a starting point, and also to celebrate and embrace the need and desire for the vintage aspect of the fashion world, so they can live in harmony,” Eley told reporters after the show.

Bousquet, the son of a sewing machine salesman, said he created his first look for Cacharel in 1958, although he founded the company officially only in 1962.

“It really started during the revolution of the 1960s,” he told The Associated Press. “It was a street movement, it was about girls going to the flea market, dressing up and wanting things to change.”

Since then, Cacharel has expanded into an international perfume powerhouse, with hit fragrances including Ana

Eley Kishimoto stayed faithful to the label’s reputation for girlish romance with loose flapper-style chiffon dresses that came in cream-and-gold stripes, or in pale pink silk accented with crochet camellias at the waist.

Meanwhile, a zingy orange cotton trouser suit combining wide-legged pants with a cropped jacket was perfect for fashion-forward career girls.

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Election day has arrived, but yesterday Obama supporters worked diligently to encourage turnout at the polls for the Democratic nominee. Obama’s former competitor, Hilary Clinton, spoke at a rally in St. Charles, Missouri. Meanwhile, Obama campaign volunteers ran a phone bank in McCain’s home state (and battleground state) of Phoenix, Arizona. The latest CNN polls show Obama […]

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The female pop group MAX is going back to its roots.
Former lead singer MINA is returning to the group after an absence of six years, reuniting the unit’s four original members.
They already have plans for a new release and a reunion concert.
MINA left the group in 2002 due to her unexpected pregnancy and marriage, and […]

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• “Danger-Prone Daphne” Is Actually Cindy McCain
• Halloween Pumpkins That Vomit!

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Stop the whiny name-calling. Americans want a president who’ll stand up and be a man. That’s why so many people were voting for Hillary Clinton. - Craig Ferguson

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When you talk about Sari Yanti Mohamad Nazari, people will always remember to the drama, Kisah Kaisara on TV3.
Sari Yanti, 24, admits that the story regarding her love is true. However, she is reluctant to tell the boy’s name or his career.
According to Sari Yanti, it is not the right time to tell the world […]

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* The bailout was voted down. Nancy Pelosi was so shocked that if she could have made a facial expression, she would have.

* The plan came in two parts, and I guess they couldn’t agree which part to implement first — the smoke or the mirrors.

* To give you an idea of how bad the economy is, over the weekend, I wrote a check and the bank bounced.

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Here’s a case of royal Chutzpah-Nebraska state senator Ernie Chambers has sued God!

Apparently Mr. Chambers is seeking an injunction against God because he believes God is conducting a terrorist threats against him and his constituents (lucky bucks that they are).

“Additionally, he said God inspired fear and caused “widespread death, destruction and terrorisation of millions upon millions of the Earth’s inhabitants.”

The judge dismissed the suit saying the plaintiff must have access to the defendant to serve the papers.

Senator Chambers has 30 days to appeal and refile his case against God. Let’s stay tuned to see what the defendant’s-pardon me, God’s response will be.

Read the whole story at Yahoo News.

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A production of the Robert Thomas play “Trap for a Lonely Man” is being performed in Tokyo next February, directed by Itagaki Kyoichi. The play will star Kato Kazuki, while the female lead is played by actress Shiraishi Miho. This will be Shiraishi Miho’s first stage role.
The suspenseful story revolves around a man (Kato Kazuki) […]

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Wow. I must wonder who I am related to.
Posted in African American Woman, Black America, Black People, culture, Diversity, life, OMG, Political Candidates, random, Seriously McMillan, urban, video, Videos, youtube   Tagged: Black Mccains, John McCain, Mccain, Mccain family   

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